Glass industry analysis report: demand recovery and slow production resumption bring prices continue to rise

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  • Release time:2021-03-29
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[Summary]Flat glass is a cyclical industry. From historical data, it goes through a cycle approximately every 3 years. The industry has a typical "ketchup effect". When the ketchup bottle is continuously tapped, the sauce is often not poured out, and then a large pile is suddenly poured out. This is related to the triple cycle characteristics of the glass industry: real estate cycle,

Glass industry analysis report: demand recovery and slow production resumption bring prices continue to rise

[Summary]Flat glass is a cyclical industry. From historical data, it goes through a cycle approximately every 3 years. The industry has a typical "ketchup effect". When the ketchup bottle is continuously tapped, the sauce is often not poured out, and then a large pile is suddenly poured out. This is related to the triple cycle characteristics of the glass industry: real estate cycle,

  • Classification:Industry News
  • Author:
  • Source:
  • Release time:2021-03-29
  • Visits:0
Information

Glass cycle characteristics: rigid supply and inventory cycles increase volatility

Flat glass is a cyclical industry. From historical data, it goes through a cycle approximately every 3 years. The industry has a typical "ketchup effect". When the ketchup bottle is continuously tapped, the sauce is often not poured out, and then a large pile is suddenly poured out. This is related to the triple cycle characteristics of the glass industry: real estate cycle, capital expenditure cycle, Inventory cycle. Compared with cement, the cyclical characteristics of glass real estate are more significant, and the rigid supply and inventory cycles of glass further increase its cyclical volatility.

Demand and supply determine the height and time of this rebound

This round of glass upswing cycle started in the second half of 2015. In 2016, Q1 sales declined somewhat under the influence of the low season of Q1 sales. After entering April, it basically showed a unilateral upward trend. As of the end of July, production capacity has increased by 1% year-on-year, prices have increased by 15% year-on-year, and inventories have fallen by 7% year-on-year. The increase in prices and the improvement in costs have resulted in a significant increase in industry profits.

Through the analysis of the historical fluctuations of glass prices, we found that: (1) the inflection point of glass prices is determined by the growth rate of real estate sales; (2) the price increase and duration are affected by the rebound in demand, and are also restricted by new capacity.

Compared with the current situation, we believe that: (1) The growth rate of real estate sales in 2016 has risen and declined. In June, the year-on-year growth rate dropped to 15%. It is highly probable that it will not be able to sustain a growth of more than 20% in the second half of the year; (2) Supply pressure remains At present, the production capacity that can be put into operation at any time accounts for 14% of the total production capacity. The resumption of production is accelerating due to the improvement of industry profitability. However, subject to environmental pressure, the cold repair of production and the introduction of new capacity will not be so fast in the short term.

Demand recovery and slow production resumption have brought prices continue to rise

Based on this, we make the following judgments on this round of price rebound: 1. The price increase is due to the recovery in demand and the depletion of previous production capacity. In addition, the peak season is coming, and the price is in the upward channel of a new cycle, which is similar to the degree and time of the demand recovery in 13 years. It is consistent; 2. Production capacity is put in a slow pace under the pressure of environmental protection. Compared with the pressure released on the supply side in 2013, the pressure on the supply side will be smaller, so that the price increase will last longer; 3. The growth rate of real estate sales demand has fallen, according to the 6-month time The price is expected to reach a high point before the end of the year. In the medium term, demand growth is expected to be low, new capacity will be gradually released, and further price upward momentum is weakening.

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Since the tps system can support stepless width adjustment from 2mm to 20mm, the system supports the automatic adjustment of the final thickness of the insulating glass
Especially due to the frequent changes of ambient temperature and pressure, the gas in the hollow cavity of the hollow glass is always in a state of thermal expansion or contraction, so that the sealant is in a state of stress for a long time. For the traditional double-channel sealing system, the action of this force will cause the deformation of the sealant and the loss of its function
TPS adopts special butyl rubber mixed molecular sieve to directly extrude and form, the consistency of the sealing material is good. At the same time, because the thermoplastic spacers can also form an intimate chemical bond with glass and silicone glue, the structure of the insulating glass is more stable and the bond is stronger.
The side sealing materials of insulating glass include aluminum strips, steel and stainless steel materials, organic silicon materials, etc. Due to the different thermal conductivity of the material itself, the heat conduction formed at the side of the insulating glass is also very different. The lower the heat transfer coefficient, the lower the heat transfer coefficient. The better the thermal insulation performance, the more obvious the energy-saving effect.
The reason why tempered glass is called safety glass is widely used in high-rise building doors and windows, glass curtain walls, indoor partition glass, daylighting ceilings, sightseeing elevator passages, furniture, glass guardrails, and windows that open to the outside of high floors. This is because tempered glass is in After being broken, the fragments will not become sharp corners, but will be broken into uniform small particles, reducing the possible harm to the human body.
Semi-tempered glass is also called thermally strengthened glass. Semi-tempered glass is a variety between ordinary flat glass and tempered glass. It has some of the advantages of tempered glass. For example, the strength is higher than ordinary float glass, which is twice that of ordinary float glass while avoiding the flatness of tempered glass. The disadvantages of poor temperature, self-explosion, and crushed as a whole once destroyed. When the semi-tempered glass is damaged, it cracks radially along the crack source, and generally has no tangential crack propagation, so it can still keep the whole body without collapsing under normal circumstances.
Glass demand: From January to August, the sales area of ​​commercial housing was 527 million square meters, an increase of 6.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell 36.2 percentage points year-on-year. The negative impact of commercial housing sales began to spread to the construction field. Since May 2010, the growth rate of newly started area, construction area and completed area of ​​housing has declined consistently. If the growth rate of the newly started area of ​​commercial housing declines and gradually spreads to the completed area, it will further affect the demand for flat glass.
1. Self-explosion classification of toughened glass Since the birth of toughened glass, it has been accompanied by self-explosion. The spontaneous explosion of tempered glass can be expressed as the phenomenon that tempered glass breaks automatically without direct external action. Tempered glass can explode spontaneously during tempering processing,
Flat glass is a cyclical industry. From historical data, it goes through a cycle approximately every 3 years. The industry has a typical "ketchup effect". When the ketchup bottle is continuously tapped, the sauce is often not poured out, and then a large pile is suddenly poured out. This is related to the triple cycle characteristics of the glass industry: real estate cycle,
Because the strength of toughened glass is relatively high, and after being broken, the fragments will be broken into uniform small particles and there is no common glass knife-like sharp corner, so it is called safety glass and is widely used indoors and outdoors.

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